Morning Highlights: Brent at $78 as Hormuz Traffic Collapses to Six Vessels Sunday; Qatar Suspends All Maritime Activity, Dark Mode Returns, ADNOC Cuts August Murban OSP to $80

Monday, July 13, 2026 | 6:45 ET

Brent (September) $78.40 | WTI (August) $73.79 Brent +2.39 (+3.1%), WTI +2.38 (+3.3%). Hormuz traffic fell to a five-week low Sunday with only six vessels transiting, all in dark mode. No ships observed transiting Monday morning on AIS. Iran declares Hormuz closed after unauthorized vessel struck; IRGC attacks U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain; Qatar suspends all maritime vessel activity; dark mode transits return; ADNOC cuts August Murban OSP to $80.01 from $101.48; analysts flag inbound tanker slowdown as production risk.

Six vessels transiting Hormuz on Sunday, all dark, with no observable traffic Monday morning and Qatar issuing a blanket maritime suspension - the first by any Gulf state since the conflict began is a sharper deterioration than anything seen since the MOU was signed three weeks ago. The dark mode transit pattern that had been replaced by AIS-on crossings during the MOU period has returned in full. The Oman corridor that the U.S. military was supporting has seen no observable transits since last Wednesday. The Iran-designated route saw traffic through Saturday before this weekend's further escalation.

UBS's Staunovo identified the production risk that matters most right now: it is not just outbound loaded tankers that matter but inbound empty tankers, because without vessels entering the Gulf to load, production at fields that have been restarting over the past month cannot be sustained. Iraq halted West Qurna 2 production briefly on a tanker shortage in late June. If inbound movements slow under heightening security concerns the partial production recovery of the past month goes into reverse, and the 10.5 million bpd of Gulf crude production that was still offline in June starts moving in the wrong direction again.

The ADNOC Murban August OSP cut to $80.01 from $101.48 - a drop of more than $21 per barrel in one month captures the full arc of the price cycle since the MOU was signed. In mid-June, Middle Eastern crude was at record premiums reflecting acute physical scarcity. By end-June it was in deep discount as the backlog cleared and Asian buyers were covered through August. Now, with traffic collapsing and dark mode returning, the physical market will need to reprice again, but the timing is complicated because most Asian refiners have already committed to August supply and are not immediately in the market for incremental barrels regardless of the security situation.

The pipeline analysis published Sunday is the right long-term frame for where this conflict ultimately leads the global energy infrastructure build-out. Seven Mideast pipeline projects in various stages of construction or planning could add 3.8 million bpd of bypass capacity by end-2027 and 7.3 million bpd cumulatively by end-2028, reaching over 14 million bpd of total effective bypass capacity. That would insulate more than 60% of pre-war Gulf exports from future Hormuz disruptions. The median historical construction time for single-country Gulf pipelines is 2.5 years, and history shows they get built faster in response to supply disruptions. The current crisis is providing exactly that motivation. The long-dated price implication is that the structural security premium the market added to Brent over the past five months will face downward pressure as bypass capacity materializes -- but that is a 2027-2028 story, not today's.

Top Developments

Hormuz Collapses to Six Dark-Mode Vessels Sunday, Qatar Suspends Maritime Activity

Hormuz traffic fell to six vessels on Sunday per Kpler, all transiting in dark mode with AIS transponders switched off, after Iran declared the strait closed following a vessel travelling on an unauthorized route and being struck. No ships were observed transiting Monday morning. The Oman corridor, which the U.S. military had been supporting, has seen no observable transits since last Wednesday. Qatar's Transport Ministry issued an urgent advisory suspending all maritime vessel activity until further notice, described by maritime intelligence firm Windward as the first blanket maritime suspension by a Gulf state since the conflict began. Iran's IRGC attacked U.S. military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain on Monday. Trump said Sunday the strait remains open to commercial traffic, though the data shows otherwise. Shipping operators are adopting a cautious approach with inbound movements slowing under heightening security concerns per ANZ.

ADNOC Cuts August Murban OSP to $80, Iranian Oil Stuck at Sea

ADNOC set its August Murban official selling price at $80.01 per barrel, down from $101.48 the previous month - a reduction of more than $21 per barrel reflecting the dramatic shift in physical market conditions since the MOU was signed. Iranian oil held at sea is rising as Tehran boosted exports during the interim deal period, but sales have been slow as Chinese independent refiners have turned to cheaper crude from Iraq, the UAE and Qatar instead. The OSP cut and the Iranian overhang together illustrate how quickly the physical market swung from acute scarcity to oversupply in the space of three weeks - and how rapidly that dynamic is now reversing as traffic collapses again.

Pipeline Build-Out Could Insulate 60% of Gulf Exports by End-2028

Analysis of seven Mideast pipeline projects - including the UAE West-East Pipeline already under construction, the Iraq Basra-Haditha Pipeline, Saudi East-West Pipeline expansion and Yanbu port expansion - estimates effective Hormuz bypass capacity rising by 3.8 million bpd by end-2027 and 7.3 million bpd cumulatively by end-2028, reaching over 14 million bpd total. That would insulate more than 60% of the 23 million bpd of pre-war Gulf exports from future Hormuz disruptions, with upside to 75% in an accelerated scenario and downside to 45% in a conservative one. Estimated total project cost is $30 to $48 billion. Historical median construction time for single-country Gulf pipelines is 2.5 years, with projects built in response to supply disruptions tending to complete faster. The current crisis provides that motivation clearly. The long-term implication is downward pressure on the structural security premium embedded in long-dated Brent prices as bypass capacity materializes through 2027 and 2028.

Ukraine Continues Russian Energy Infrastructure Campaign

Ukraine's Security Service struck an oil depot in Russia's Stavropol region overnight and hit three storage tanks at an oil-loading site at the port of Kavkaz in Krasnodar. The strikes continue a campaign that has taken Russian refinery outages to 3.8 million bpd - over half of total capacity - and prompted Russia's diesel export ban through July 31. Russian western port crude exports hit a record in June as damaged refineries redirected crude from domestic processing to export, while refined product exports have fallen sharply. European diesel margins remain near record levels reflecting the simultaneous loss of Middle Eastern and Russian product supply into the Atlantic Basin.